Aptet Fitness
{
"config": {
"topNs": [
2,
3,
4,
5
],
"universe": [
"XLK",
"XLF",
"XLV",
"XLY",
"XLI",
"XLP",
"XLE",
"XLB",
"XLU",
"XLRE",
"XLC",
"SMH",
"FDX"
],
"lookbacks": [
14,
21,
30,
45,
63
],
"forwardDays": [
1,
5,
10
],
"maxHoldings": 5,
"minHoldings": 2,
"fallbackTicker": "VOO",
"riskOffEnabled": true,
"adaptationSpeed": "balanced",
"benchmarkTicker": "VOO"
},
"ticker": "FDX",
"fitScope": "universe_conditioned",
"algorithm": "aptet",
"bestCombo": {
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 352,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
"dateRange": {
"end": "2026-07-25",
"start": "2025-01-01"
},
"scoreMode": "blended",
"calibration": {
"bestComboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"comboQualityScale": 0.22,
"comboQualityCenter": 0.35,
"medianComboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"bestRawFitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"upperQuartileComboQuality": 0.08304842177653415
},
"algorithmFit": {
"label": "poor",
"score": 0.16027955297995705,
"rawScore": 0.2664387374212273,
"confidence": 0.203125,
"bestProfile": {
"topN": 2,
"lookbackDays": 14
},
"profileBreadth": 0,
"recommendedRegion": {
"topNs": [
2
],
"lookbackDays": [
14
]
},
"parameterStability": 1,
"confidenceAdjustment": "conservative_penalty"
},
"rankedCombos": [
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 352,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 352,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 352,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 352,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 339,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 339,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 339,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 339,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 330,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 330,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 330,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 330,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 315,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 315,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 315,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 315,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 297,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 297,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 297,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"eligibleDays": 297,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.6666666666666666,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.6666666666666666,
"5": 1,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0031436525666824755,
"5": 0.010873074642400837,
"10": 0
}
}
],
"interpretation": {
"scoreMeaning": "The effective fit score after applying the conservative confidence penalty. Lower confidence reduces the effective fit score but does not, by itself, imply evidence of poor fit.",
"fitScopeMeaning": "Aptet fit is currently universe-conditioned: activation history and fit depend on the other members in the tested cross-sectional universe.",
"rawScoreMeaning": "The unadjusted Aptet-family fit estimate before applying the conservative confidence penalty.",
"activationMeaning": "Activation count measures how often the Aptet ranking would have selected the stock while risk-on.",
"confidenceMeaning": "Reflects the amount and breadth of historical evidence supporting the family-fit score.",
"algorithmFitMeaning": "Measures how consistently this stock works across the Aptet strategy family within this tested universe, not only under its single best parameter combination.",
"comboQualityMeaning": "Fixed-scale normalized profile quality derived from fitnessScore using sigmoid((fitnessScore - 0.35) / 0.22).",
"fitnessScoreMeaning": "Per-profile raw score used for diagnostics and ranking. Higher is better, but it is not the stock's overall Aptet-family fit.",
"forwardReturnMeaning": "Forward returns are measured from the close before activation through each requested horizon.",
"profileBreadthMeaning": "Measures how much of the tested Aptet parameter grid clears a robust quality threshold after weighting for sample confidence.",
"parameterStabilityMeaning": "Measures whether nearby Aptet parameter combinations retain a large share of the best profile's normalized quality.",
"confidenceAdjustmentMeaning": "The current conservative_penalty adjustment retains the existing formula: rawScore * confidence + rawScore * (1 - confidence) * 0.50."
},
"lookbackSummary": [
{
"bestTopN": 2,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0
},
{
"bestTopN": 2,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0
},
{
"bestTopN": 2,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0
},
{
"bestTopN": 2,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0
},
{
"bestTopN": 2,
"comboQuality": 0.08304842177653415,
"fitnessScore": -0.1783587834187826,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": -0.0031436525666824755,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0
}
],
"strategyOptions": {
"shadow": "Scores the stock like a standalone trade-only-when-active strategy.",
"blended": "Recommended. Mixes activation quality, activation frequency, return lift, and shadow performance.",
"coverage": "Rewards stocks that activate often without giving up too much quality.",
"precision": "Prioritizes hit rate and average return after activation."
},
"universeIdentity": {
"hash": "b7bd22532961fa4df73dafb3f66d4edd9d1f7385f8758e3138fb7c2f860e1c3a",
"size": 13,
"members": [
"FDX",
"SMH",
"XLB",
"XLC",
"XLE",
"XLF",
"XLI",
"XLK",
"XLP",
"XLRE",
"XLU",
"XLV",
"XLY"
],
"version": 1
},
"scoreModeDescription": "Recommended. Mixes activation quality, activation frequency, return lift, and shadow performance."
}Force Fitness
{
"config": {
"weights": [
0.4,
0.3,
0.2,
0.1
],
"universe": [
"XLK",
"XLF",
"XLV",
"XLY",
"XLI",
"XLP",
"XLE",
"XLB",
"XLU",
"XLRE",
"XLC",
"SMH",
"FDX"
],
"lookbacks": [
14,
21,
30,
45,
63
],
"forwardDays": [
1,
5,
10
],
"portfolioSizes": [
2,
3,
4,
5
],
"safetyNetEquity": "VOO"
},
"ticker": "FDX",
"fitScope": "universe_conditioned",
"algorithm": "force",
"bestCombo": {
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5785123966942148,
"5": 0.6611570247933884,
"10": 0.7603305785123967
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5785123966942148,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.9326015954454189,
"eligibleDays": 326,
"fitnessScore": 0.9280184847319627,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.001388728287378905,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.04170258074329458,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.37116564417177916,
"activationCount": 121,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5368098159509203,
"5": 0.6335403726708074,
"10": 0.6908517350157729
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 2.05475193242734,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0034843528041435742,
"5": 0.016301819567535382,
"10": 0.03250808547415027
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.116696929661111,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.49560772281958787,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0034843528041435742,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-10-31",
"2025-11-06",
"2025-11-07",
"2025-11-10",
"2025-11-12",
"2025-11-13",
"2025-11-14",
"2025-11-17",
"2025-11-18",
"2025-11-19"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 121,
"5": 121,
"10": 121
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.002095624516764669,
"5": 0.010821369897028027,
"10": 0.022089603908814533
}
},
"dateRange": {
"end": "2026-07-25",
"start": "2025-01-01"
},
"scoreMode": "blended",
"calibration": {
"bestComboQuality": 0.9326015954454189,
"comboQualityScale": 0.22,
"comboQualityCenter": 0.35,
"medianComboQuality": 0.7331562488519006,
"bestRawFitnessScore": 0.9280184847319627,
"upperQuartileComboQuality": 0.8232246422479804
},
"algorithmFit": {
"label": "good",
"score": 0.7850881615850309,
"rawScore": 0.797546073974492,
"confidence": 0.9687593913480677,
"bestProfile": {
"lookbackDays": 63,
"portfolioSize": 2
},
"profileBreadth": 0.7999401833051953,
"recommendedRegion": {
"lookbackDays": [
45,
63
],
"portfolioSizes": [
2,
3,
4,
5
]
},
"parameterStability": 0.7929358727746189,
"confidenceAdjustment": "conservative_penalty"
},
"rankedCombos": [
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5785123966942148,
"5": 0.6611570247933884,
"10": 0.7603305785123967
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5785123966942148,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.9326015954454189,
"eligibleDays": 326,
"fitnessScore": 0.9280184847319627,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.001388728287378905,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.04170258074329458,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.37116564417177916,
"activationCount": 121,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5368098159509203,
"5": 0.6335403726708074,
"10": 0.6908517350157729
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 2.05475193242734,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0034843528041435742,
"5": 0.016301819567535382,
"10": 0.03250808547415027
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.116696929661111,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.49560772281958787,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0034843528041435742,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-10-31",
"2025-11-06",
"2025-11-07",
"2025-11-10",
"2025-11-12",
"2025-11-13",
"2025-11-14",
"2025-11-17",
"2025-11-18",
"2025-11-19"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 121,
"5": 121,
"10": 121
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.002095624516764669,
"5": 0.010821369897028027,
"10": 0.022089603908814533
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5771812080536913,
"5": 0.6122448979591837,
"10": 0.7191780821917808
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5771812080536913,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.8944518109458139,
"eligibleDays": 344,
"fitnessScore": 0.8201495506327728,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.0008761033124765137,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.03939051037927277,
"portfolioSize": 3,
"activationRate": 0.4331395348837209,
"activationCount": 149,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5377906976744186,
"5": 0.6205882352941177,
"10": 0.6597014925373135
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.9977628635346757,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.4823363331745525,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.002510401455147649,
"5": 0.012020317370592795,
"10": 0.027113547594915157
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.11669692966111134,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.4072145336331858,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.002510401455147649,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-07-03",
"2025-07-07",
"2025-07-25",
"2025-07-28",
"2025-07-29",
"2025-10-03",
"2025-10-06",
"2025-10-07",
"2025-10-08",
"2025-10-29"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 149,
"5": 147,
"10": 146
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0016342981426711353,
"5": 0.008214991101795991,
"10": 0.016617926092677468
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5641025641025641,
"5": 0.6089743589743589,
"10": 0.6858974358974359
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5641025641025641,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.8667924834613255,
"eligibleDays": 326,
"fitnessScore": 0.7620361104298512,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.00014243143732027086,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.027292748151643842,
"portfolioSize": 4,
"activationRate": 0.4785276073619632,
"activationCount": 156,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5368098159509203,
"5": 0.6335403726708074,
"10": 0.6908517350157729
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.2496882425588454,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.00223805595408494,
"5": 0.01059322638632898,
"10": 0.023336677194924466
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.13575487450209212,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.37213780207333436,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.00223805595408494,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-07-28",
"2025-07-29",
"2025-10-28",
"2025-10-29",
"2025-10-30",
"2025-10-31",
"2025-11-03",
"2025-11-04",
"2025-11-05",
"2025-11-06"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 156,
"5": 156,
"10": 156
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.002095624516764669,
"5": 0.010821369897028027,
"10": 0.022089603908814533
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5641025641025641,
"5": 0.6089743589743589,
"10": 0.6858974358974359
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5641025641025641,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.8667924834613255,
"eligibleDays": 326,
"fitnessScore": 0.7620361104298512,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.00014243143732027086,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.027292748151643842,
"portfolioSize": 5,
"activationRate": 0.4785276073619632,
"activationCount": 156,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5368098159509203,
"5": 0.6335403726708074,
"10": 0.6908517350157729
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.2496882425588454,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.00223805595408494,
"5": 0.01059322638632898,
"10": 0.023336677194924466
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.13575487450209212,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.37213780207333436,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.00223805595408494,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-07-28",
"2025-07-29",
"2025-10-28",
"2025-10-29",
"2025-10-30",
"2025-10-31",
"2025-11-03",
"2025-11-04",
"2025-11-05",
"2025-11-06"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 156,
"5": 156,
"10": 156
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.002095624516764669,
"5": 0.010821369897028027,
"10": 0.022089603908814533
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5825242718446602,
"5": 0.6601941747572816,
"10": 0.7864077669902912
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5825242718446602,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.8445455028888754,
"eligibleDays": 344,
"fitnessScore": 0.7223380211175319,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.0014575434519736874,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.0447335741702416,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.29941860465116277,
"activationCount": 103,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5377906976744186,
"5": 0.6205882352941177,
"10": 0.6597014925373135
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.6642402488527517,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0030918415946448227,
"5": 0.015629528545231718,
"10": 0.03327669050311913
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.11669692966111078,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.3530271543013277,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0030918415946448227,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-10-06",
"2025-10-07",
"2025-11-06",
"2025-11-07",
"2025-11-10",
"2025-11-11",
"2025-11-12",
"2025-11-13",
"2025-11-14",
"2025-11-17"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 103,
"5": 103,
"10": 103
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0016342981426711353,
"5": 0.008214991101795991,
"10": 0.016617926092677468
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5666666666666667,
"5": 0.6266666666666667,
"10": 0.7
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5666666666666667,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.8161176887010154,
"eligibleDays": 326,
"fitnessScore": 0.6778577786989222,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 8.115318329391004e-7,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.029856850715746397,
"portfolioSize": 3,
"activationRate": 0.4601226993865031,
"activationCount": 150,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5368098159509203,
"5": 0.6335403726708074,
"10": 0.6908517350157729
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.158242037134249,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0020964360485976083,
"5": 0.01249958792103263,
"10": 0.025256788116890565
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.19280614211995795,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.3276534815013692,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0020964360485976083,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-10-28",
"2025-10-29",
"2025-10-30",
"2025-10-31",
"2025-11-03",
"2025-11-04",
"2025-11-05",
"2025-11-06",
"2025-11-07",
"2025-11-10"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 150,
"5": 150,
"10": 150
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.002095624516764669,
"5": 0.010821369897028027,
"10": 0.022089603908814533
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5679012345679012,
"5": 0.5802469135802469,
"10": 0.6419753086419753
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5679012345679012,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.7803460200179695,
"eligibleDays": 359,
"fitnessScore": 0.6288904682984866,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.0003623408563639169,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.03586780838405723,
"portfolioSize": 4,
"activationRate": 0.45125348189415043,
"activationCount": 162,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.532033426183844,
"5": 0.6,
"10": 0.6314285714285715
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.0464191965785927,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0017222555489505116,
"5": 0.007058137766746272,
"10": 0.019010188108686155
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.156437516051382,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.27556695209027193,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0017222555489505116,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-07-02",
"2025-07-03",
"2025-07-07",
"2025-07-08",
"2025-07-09",
"2025-07-10",
"2025-07-11",
"2025-07-14",
"2025-07-15",
"2025-07-16"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 162,
"5": 162,
"10": 162
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0013599146925865947,
"5": 0.006768830580928713,
"10": 0.014065633591480888
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5679012345679012,
"5": 0.5802469135802469,
"10": 0.6419753086419753
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5679012345679012,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.7803460200179695,
"eligibleDays": 359,
"fitnessScore": 0.6288904682984866,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.0003623408563639169,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.03586780838405723,
"portfolioSize": 5,
"activationRate": 0.45125348189415043,
"activationCount": 162,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.532033426183844,
"5": 0.6,
"10": 0.6314285714285715
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.0464191965785927,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0017222555489505116,
"5": 0.007058137766746272,
"10": 0.019010188108686155
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.156437516051382,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.27556695209027193,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0017222555489505116,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-07-02",
"2025-07-03",
"2025-07-07",
"2025-07-08",
"2025-07-09",
"2025-07-10",
"2025-07-11",
"2025-07-14",
"2025-07-15",
"2025-07-16"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 162,
"5": 162,
"10": 162
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0013599146925865947,
"5": 0.006768830580928713,
"10": 0.014065633591480888
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5698924731182796,
"5": 0.6129032258064516,
"10": 0.6774193548387096
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5698924731182796,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.7337626217567349,
"eligibleDays": 368,
"fitnessScore": 0.5730353977425775,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.0012078836951145042,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.029131603553062213,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.25271739130434784,
"activationCount": 93,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5407608695652174,
"5": 0.6071428571428571,
"10": 0.6239554317548747
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.2411346978509905,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.002752275802721855,
"5": 0.0071744226507734635,
"10": 0.01343361587700711
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.08448122426915983,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.26415865561370433,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.002752275802721855,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-07-02",
"2025-07-03",
"2025-07-07",
"2025-07-08",
"2025-07-09",
"2025-07-25",
"2025-07-28",
"2025-07-29",
"2025-09-02",
"2025-10-07"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 93,
"5": 93,
"10": 93
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0015443921076073507,
"5": 0.007242954574216249,
"10": 0.014096796353875514
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.562874251497006,
"5": 0.593939393939394,
"10": 0.6932515337423313
},
"hitRate1D": 0.562874251497006,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.7331562488519006,
"eligibleDays": 344,
"fitnessScore": 0.5723530225991525,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": -0.00011490193774289672,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.025083553822587423,
"portfolioSize": 4,
"activationRate": 0.48546511627906974,
"activationCount": 167,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5377906976744186,
"5": 0.6205882352941177,
"10": 0.6597014925373135
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.9976047904191617,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.8299274651151166,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0015193962049282386,
"5": 0.010086944108615409,
"10": 0.025214082466604643
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.16194346926964798,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.2311970680091111,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0015193962049282386,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-07-03",
"2025-07-07",
"2025-07-08",
"2025-07-11",
"2025-07-25",
"2025-07-28",
"2025-07-29",
"2025-07-30",
"2025-10-02",
"2025-10-03"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 167,
"5": 165,
"10": 163
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0016342981426711353,
"5": 0.008214991101795991,
"10": 0.016617926092677468
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.562874251497006,
"5": 0.593939393939394,
"10": 0.6932515337423313
},
"hitRate1D": 0.562874251497006,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.7331562488519006,
"eligibleDays": 344,
"fitnessScore": 0.5723530225991525,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": -0.00011490193774289672,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.025083553822587423,
"portfolioSize": 5,
"activationRate": 0.48546511627906974,
"activationCount": 167,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5377906976744186,
"5": 0.6205882352941177,
"10": 0.6597014925373135
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.9976047904191617,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.8299274651151166,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0015193962049282386,
"5": 0.010086944108615409,
"10": 0.025214082466604643
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.16194346926964798,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.2311970680091111,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0015193962049282386,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-07-03",
"2025-07-07",
"2025-07-08",
"2025-07-11",
"2025-07-25",
"2025-07-28",
"2025-07-29",
"2025-07-30",
"2025-10-02",
"2025-10-03"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 167,
"5": 165,
"10": 163
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0016342981426711353,
"5": 0.008214991101795991,
"10": 0.016617926092677468
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5476190476190477,
"5": 0.5714285714285714,
"10": 0.6349206349206349
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5476190476190477,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.7095728540559267,
"eligibleDays": 368,
"fitnessScore": 0.5465282921000495,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.0005060266573851588,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.006858178053830266,
"portfolioSize": 3,
"activationRate": 0.3423913043478261,
"activationCount": 126,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5407608695652174,
"5": 0.6071428571428571,
"10": 0.6239554317548747
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.0435661669008685,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0020504187649925095,
"5": 0.004177640081673733,
"10": 0.01217203570438008
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.09911527858574953,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.25110856608392007,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0020504187649925095,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-05-13",
"2025-06-25",
"2025-07-02",
"2025-07-03",
"2025-07-07",
"2025-07-08",
"2025-07-09",
"2025-07-10",
"2025-07-11",
"2025-07-14"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 126,
"5": 126,
"10": 126
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0015443921076073507,
"5": 0.007242954574216249,
"10": 0.014096796353875514
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5632183908045977,
"5": 0.6162790697674418,
"10": 0.6976744186046512
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5632183908045977,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.6990615092741825,
"eligibleDays": 375,
"fitnessScore": 0.5354232248757412,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.001608516159770353,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.027218390804597647,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.232,
"activationCount": 87,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.536,
"5": 0.5956873315363881,
"10": 0.6147540983606558
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.9984674329501916,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.1549051200760365,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0028988452621570003,
"5": 0.009370768188065285,
"10": 0.01671147537233141
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.08271051671802399,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.24729222935958872,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0028988452621570003,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-06-11",
"2025-06-24",
"2025-06-25",
"2025-07-02",
"2025-07-03",
"2025-07-07",
"2025-07-09",
"2025-08-20",
"2025-08-22",
"2025-08-25"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 87,
"5": 86,
"10": 86
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0012903291023866473,
"5": 0.0060038535296758,
"10": 0.01298909240536433
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5620437956204379,
"5": 0.5474452554744526,
"10": 0.6496350364963503
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5620437956204379,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.6930211557695604,
"eligibleDays": 359,
"fitnessScore": 0.5291419723761224,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.0003347000455961877,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.030010369436593964,
"portfolioSize": 3,
"activationRate": 0.3816155988857939,
"activationCount": 137,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.532033426183844,
"5": 0.6,
"10": 0.6314285714285715
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.9136090364099626,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0016946147381827824,
"5": 0.006094939098895147,
"10": 0.01838516441289741
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.12664938405265558,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.21826082818037396,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0016946147381827824,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-07-03",
"2025-07-07",
"2025-07-08",
"2025-07-09",
"2025-07-10",
"2025-07-11",
"2025-07-16",
"2025-07-28",
"2025-07-29",
"2025-10-03"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 137,
"5": 137,
"10": 137
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0013599146925865947,
"5": 0.006768830580928713,
"10": 0.014065633591480888
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5369127516778524,
"5": 0.581081081081081,
"10": 0.6216216216216216
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5369127516778524,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.6571230822995545,
"eligibleDays": 375,
"fitnessScore": 0.4931099556859396,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.00040454049922908374,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.0009127516778523193,
"portfolioSize": 4,
"activationRate": 0.3973333333333333,
"activationCount": 149,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.536,
"5": 0.5956873315363881,
"10": 0.6147540983606558
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.9991051454138703,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.7913304450122693,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.001694869601615731,
"5": 0.0058393945531228925,
"10": 0.010227859582335852
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.1406342756166239,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.22057281740393386,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.001694869601615731,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-02-25",
"2025-02-26",
"2025-02-28",
"2025-03-03",
"2025-05-15",
"2025-05-16",
"2025-05-19",
"2025-06-11",
"2025-06-17",
"2025-06-20"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 149,
"5": 148,
"10": 148
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0012903291023866473,
"5": 0.0060038535296758,
"10": 0.01298909240536433
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5369127516778524,
"5": 0.581081081081081,
"10": 0.6216216216216216
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5369127516778524,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.6571230822995545,
"eligibleDays": 375,
"fitnessScore": 0.4931099556859396,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.00040454049922908374,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.0009127516778523193,
"portfolioSize": 5,
"activationRate": 0.3973333333333333,
"activationCount": 149,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.536,
"5": 0.5956873315363881,
"10": 0.6147540983606558
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.9991051454138703,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.7913304450122693,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.001694869601615731,
"5": 0.0058393945531228925,
"10": 0.010227859582335852
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.1406342756166239,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.22057281740393386,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.001694869601615731,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-02-25",
"2025-02-26",
"2025-02-28",
"2025-03-03",
"2025-05-15",
"2025-05-16",
"2025-05-19",
"2025-06-11",
"2025-06-17",
"2025-06-20"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 149,
"5": 148,
"10": 148
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0012903291023866473,
"5": 0.0060038535296758,
"10": 0.01298909240536433
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5466666666666666,
"5": 0.5666666666666667,
"10": 0.6333333333333333
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5466666666666666,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.6449430594029497,
"eligibleDays": 368,
"fitnessScore": 0.48131444925325406,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.000005862254037668213,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.005905797101449228,
"portfolioSize": 4,
"activationRate": 0.4076086956521739,
"activationCount": 150,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5407608695652174,
"5": 0.6071428571428571,
"10": 0.6239554317548747
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.769945786404236,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0015502543616450189,
"5": 0.004780292704054772,
"10": 0.014354184450609635
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.15681323004252923,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.2030445127854663,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0015502543616450189,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-03-05",
"2025-03-07",
"2025-05-13",
"2025-05-15",
"2025-06-23",
"2025-06-24",
"2025-06-25",
"2025-06-30",
"2025-07-01",
"2025-07-02"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 150,
"5": 150,
"10": 150
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0015443921076073507,
"5": 0.007242954574216249,
"10": 0.014096796353875514
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5466666666666666,
"5": 0.5666666666666667,
"10": 0.6333333333333333
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5466666666666666,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.6449430594029497,
"eligibleDays": 368,
"fitnessScore": 0.48131444925325406,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.000005862254037668213,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.005905797101449228,
"portfolioSize": 5,
"activationRate": 0.4076086956521739,
"activationCount": 150,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.5407608695652174,
"5": 0.6071428571428571,
"10": 0.6239554317548747
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.769945786404236,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0015502543616450189,
"5": 0.004780292704054772,
"10": 0.014354184450609635
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.15681323004252923,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.2030445127854663,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0015502543616450189,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-03-05",
"2025-03-07",
"2025-05-13",
"2025-05-15",
"2025-06-23",
"2025-06-24",
"2025-06-25",
"2025-06-30",
"2025-07-01",
"2025-07-02"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 150,
"5": 150,
"10": 150
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0015443921076073507,
"5": 0.007242954574216249,
"10": 0.014096796353875514
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5666666666666667,
"5": 0.6333333333333333,
"10": 0.7555555555555555
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5666666666666667,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.6164835233783813,
"eligibleDays": 359,
"fitnessScore": 0.4544227827461427,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.0008635897809933036,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.03463324048282268,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.25069637883008355,
"activationCount": 90,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.532033426183844,
"5": 0.6,
"10": 0.6314285714285715
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.06436413753845,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0022235044735798982,
"5": 0.01124170721501805,
"10": 0.027725346066862812
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.1473750278519631,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.19811581113247834,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0022235044735798982,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-07-03",
"2025-07-28",
"2025-11-03",
"2025-11-04",
"2025-11-05",
"2025-11-07",
"2025-11-10",
"2025-11-11",
"2025-11-12",
"2025-11-13"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 90,
"5": 90,
"10": 90
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0013599146925865947,
"5": 0.006768830580928713,
"10": 0.014065633591480888
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "FDX",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5245901639344263,
"5": 0.6033057851239669,
"10": 0.6363636363636364
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5245901639344263,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.41970972664282363,
"eligibleDays": 375,
"fitnessScore": 0.27872767704215967,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": -0.00005201227458071899,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.011409836065573775,
"portfolioSize": 3,
"activationRate": 0.3253333333333333,
"activationCount": 122,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.536,
"5": 0.5956873315363881,
"10": 0.6147540983606558
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.9989071038251367,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.4798730140781168,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0012383168278059283,
"5": 0.007312777899449958,
"10": 0.01026571231451215
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.1809196021793278,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.10798459016509221,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0012383168278059283,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-02-26",
"2025-03-03",
"2025-05-15",
"2025-06-11",
"2025-06-23",
"2025-06-24",
"2025-06-25",
"2025-07-02",
"2025-07-03",
"2025-07-07"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 122,
"5": 121,
"10": 121
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0012903291023866473,
"5": 0.0060038535296758,
"10": 0.01298909240536433
}
}
],
"interpretation": {
"scoreMeaning": "The effective fit score after applying the conservative confidence penalty.",
"backendMeaning": "This Force evaluator uses the alpha1 backend logic that powers the current Force preview path.",
"fitScopeMeaning": "Force fit is currently universe-conditioned because the stock competes against the tested Force universe at each ranking step.",
"rawScoreMeaning": "The unadjusted Force-family fit estimate before the conservative confidence penalty.",
"algorithmFitMeaning": "Measures how consistently this stock works across the Force strategy family within this tested universe.",
"confidenceAdjustmentMeaning": "The current conservative_penalty adjustment retains the existing formula used by the shared family-fit core."
},
"lookbackSummary": [
{
"comboQuality": 0.6990615092741825,
"fitnessScore": 0.5354232248757412,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.001608516159770353,
"activationRate": 0.232,
"activationCount": 87,
"sampleConfidence": 0.9984674329501916,
"bestPortfolioSize": 2,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.24729222935958872,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0028988452621570003
},
{
"comboQuality": 0.7337626217567349,
"fitnessScore": 0.5730353977425775,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.0012078836951145042,
"activationRate": 0.25271739130434784,
"activationCount": 93,
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"bestPortfolioSize": 2,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.26415865561370433,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.002752275802721855
},
{
"comboQuality": 0.7803460200179695,
"fitnessScore": 0.6288904682984866,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.0003623408563639169,
"activationRate": 0.45125348189415043,
"activationCount": 162,
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"bestPortfolioSize": 4,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.27556695209027193,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0017222555489505116
},
{
"comboQuality": 0.8944518109458139,
"fitnessScore": 0.8201495506327728,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.0008761033124765137,
"activationRate": 0.4331395348837209,
"activationCount": 149,
"sampleConfidence": 0.9977628635346757,
"bestPortfolioSize": 3,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.4072145336331858,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.002510401455147649
},
{
"comboQuality": 0.9326015954454189,
"fitnessScore": 0.9280184847319627,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.001388728287378905,
"activationRate": 0.37116564417177916,
"activationCount": 121,
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"bestPortfolioSize": 2,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.49560772281958787,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0034843528041435742
}
],
"strategyOptions": {
"shadow": "Scores the stock like a standalone trade-only-when-active strategy.",
"blended": "Recommended. Mixes activation quality, activation frequency, return lift, and shadow performance.",
"coverage": "Rewards stocks that activate often without giving up too much quality.",
"precision": "Prioritizes hit rate and average return after activation."
},
"backendAlgorithm": "alpha1",
"universeIdentity": {
"hash": "b7bd22532961fa4df73dafb3f66d4edd9d1f7385f8758e3138fb7c2f860e1c3a",
"size": 13,
"members": [
"FDX",
"SMH",
"XLB",
"XLC",
"XLE",
"XLF",
"XLI",
"XLK",
"XLP",
"XLRE",
"XLU",
"XLV",
"XLY"
],
"version": 1
},
"scoreModeDescription": "Recommended. Mixes activation quality, activation frequency, return lift, and shadow performance."
}