Aptet Fitness
{
"config": {
"topNs": [
2,
3,
4,
5
],
"universe": [
"XLK",
"XLF",
"XLV",
"XLY",
"XLI",
"XLP",
"XLE",
"XLB",
"XLU",
"XLRE",
"XLC",
"SMH",
"MSTR"
],
"lookbacks": [
14,
21,
30,
45,
63
],
"forwardDays": [
1,
5,
10
],
"maxHoldings": 5,
"minHoldings": 2,
"fallbackTicker": "VOO",
"riskOffEnabled": true,
"adaptationSpeed": "balanced",
"benchmarkTicker": "VOO"
},
"ticker": "MSTR",
"fitScope": "universe_conditioned",
"algorithm": "aptet",
"bestCombo": {
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 352,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
"dateRange": {
"end": "2026-07-25",
"start": "2025-01-01"
},
"scoreMode": "blended",
"calibration": {
"bestComboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"comboQualityScale": 0.22,
"comboQualityCenter": 0.35,
"medianComboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"bestRawFitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"upperQuartileComboQuality": 0.10314025414999896
},
"algorithmFit": {
"label": "poor",
"score": 0.16994874730968698,
"rawScore": 0.28251220331999916,
"confidence": 0.203125,
"bestProfile": {
"topN": 2,
"lookbackDays": 14
},
"profileBreadth": 0,
"recommendedRegion": {
"topNs": [
2
],
"lookbackDays": [
14
]
},
"parameterStability": 1,
"confidenceAdjustment": "conservative_penalty"
},
"rankedCombos": [
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 352,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 352,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 352,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 352,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 339,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 339,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 339,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 339,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 330,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 330,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 330,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 330,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 315,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 315,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 315,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 315,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 297,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 297,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 297,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"hitRate1D": 0,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"eligibleDays": 297,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"hitRateLift1D": -0.3333333333333333,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.3333333333333333,
"5": 0.17391304347826086,
"10": 0
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": 0,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 0,
"5": 0,
"10": 0
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.022330597649433456,
"5": -0.11434960562985522,
"10": -0.19689439455851077
}
}
],
"interpretation": {
"scoreMeaning": "The effective fit score after applying the conservative confidence penalty. Lower confidence reduces the effective fit score but does not, by itself, imply evidence of poor fit.",
"fitScopeMeaning": "Aptet fit is currently universe-conditioned: activation history and fit depend on the other members in the tested cross-sectional universe.",
"rawScoreMeaning": "The unadjusted Aptet-family fit estimate before applying the conservative confidence penalty.",
"activationMeaning": "Activation count measures how often the Aptet ranking would have selected the stock while risk-on.",
"confidenceMeaning": "Reflects the amount and breadth of historical evidence supporting the family-fit score.",
"algorithmFitMeaning": "Measures how consistently this stock works across the Aptet strategy family within this tested universe, not only under its single best parameter combination.",
"comboQualityMeaning": "Fixed-scale normalized profile quality derived from fitnessScore using sigmoid((fitnessScore - 0.35) / 0.22).",
"fitnessScoreMeaning": "Per-profile raw score used for diagnostics and ranking. Higher is better, but it is not the stock's overall Aptet-family fit.",
"forwardReturnMeaning": "Forward returns are measured from the close before activation through each requested horizon.",
"profileBreadthMeaning": "Measures how much of the tested Aptet parameter grid clears a robust quality threshold after weighting for sample confidence.",
"parameterStabilityMeaning": "Measures whether nearby Aptet parameter combinations retain a large share of the best profile's normalized quality.",
"confidenceAdjustmentMeaning": "The current conservative_penalty adjustment retains the existing formula: rawScore * confidence + rawScore * (1 - confidence) * 0.50."
},
"lookbackSummary": [
{
"bestTopN": 2,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0
},
{
"bestTopN": 2,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0
},
{
"bestTopN": 2,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0
},
{
"bestTopN": 2,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0
},
{
"bestTopN": 2,
"comboQuality": 0.10314025414999896,
"fitnessScore": -0.1258181423480435,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.022330597649433456,
"activationRate": 0,
"activationCount": 0,
"sampleConfidence": 0.25,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0
}
],
"strategyOptions": {
"shadow": "Scores the stock like a standalone trade-only-when-active strategy.",
"blended": "Recommended. Mixes activation quality, activation frequency, return lift, and shadow performance.",
"coverage": "Rewards stocks that activate often without giving up too much quality.",
"precision": "Prioritizes hit rate and average return after activation."
},
"universeIdentity": {
"hash": "999b567badf76544cc2d0cb56a9498577424ad54e1f831c9b48dc49f3407e040",
"size": 13,
"members": [
"MSTR",
"SMH",
"XLB",
"XLC",
"XLE",
"XLF",
"XLI",
"XLK",
"XLP",
"XLRE",
"XLU",
"XLV",
"XLY"
],
"version": 1
},
"scoreModeDescription": "Recommended. Mixes activation quality, activation frequency, return lift, and shadow performance."
}Force Fitness
{
"config": {
"weights": [
0.4,
0.3,
0.2,
0.1
],
"universe": [
"XLK",
"XLF",
"XLV",
"XLY",
"XLI",
"XLP",
"XLE",
"XLB",
"XLU",
"XLRE",
"XLC",
"SMH",
"MSTR"
],
"lookbacks": [
14,
21,
30,
45,
63
],
"forwardDays": [
1,
5,
10
],
"portfolioSizes": [
2,
3,
4,
5
],
"safetyNetEquity": "VOO"
},
"ticker": "MSTR",
"fitScope": "universe_conditioned",
"algorithm": "force",
"bestCombo": {
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.532258064516129,
"5": 0.5806451612903226,
"10": 0.5645161290322581
},
"hitRate1D": 0.532258064516129,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.8085502468925623,
"eligibleDays": 344,
"fitnessScore": 0.6669358361502504,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.007580356750424011,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.07004876219054762,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.18023255813953487,
"activationCount": 62,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4622093023255814,
"5": 0.45294117647058824,
"10": 0.39104477611940297
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.0870464462784646,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.005989531089547156,
"5": 0.015884423320772233,
"10": 0.011295931639815009
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.13604987392253653,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.3868529638644269,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.005989531089547156,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-04-23",
"2025-04-24",
"2025-04-25",
"2025-04-28",
"2025-04-29",
"2025-04-30",
"2025-05-01",
"2025-05-02",
"2025-05-05",
"2025-05-06"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 62,
"5": 62,
"10": 62
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0015908256608768551,
"5": -0.010095567700552498,
"10": -0.021932255073082642
}
},
"dateRange": {
"end": "2026-07-25",
"start": "2025-01-01"
},
"scoreMode": "blended",
"calibration": {
"bestComboQuality": 0.8085502468925623,
"comboQualityScale": 0.22,
"comboQualityCenter": 0.35,
"medianComboQuality": 0.049821852091620704,
"bestRawFitnessScore": 0.6669358361502504,
"upperQuartileComboQuality": 0.13102450792955392
},
"algorithmFit": {
"label": "poor",
"score": 0.16410879653017485,
"rawScore": 0.17705106316882543,
"confidence": 0.8538018760575349,
"bestProfile": {
"lookbackDays": 45,
"portfolioSize": 2
},
"profileBreadth": 0.05004711032336915,
"recommendedRegion": {
"lookbackDays": [
45
],
"portfolioSizes": [
2
]
},
"parameterStability": 0.01541829157952171,
"confidenceAdjustment": "conservative_penalty"
},
"rankedCombos": [
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.532258064516129,
"5": 0.5806451612903226,
"10": 0.5645161290322581
},
"hitRate1D": 0.532258064516129,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.8085502468925623,
"eligibleDays": 344,
"fitnessScore": 0.6669358361502504,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.007580356750424011,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.07004876219054762,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.18023255813953487,
"activationCount": 62,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4622093023255814,
"5": 0.45294117647058824,
"10": 0.39104477611940297
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 1.0870464462784646,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.005989531089547156,
"5": 0.015884423320772233,
"10": 0.011295931639815009
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.13604987392253653,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.3868529638644269,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.005989531089547156,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-04-23",
"2025-04-24",
"2025-04-25",
"2025-04-28",
"2025-04-29",
"2025-04-30",
"2025-05-01",
"2025-05-02",
"2025-05-05",
"2025-05-06"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 62,
"5": 62,
"10": 62
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0015908256608768551,
"5": -0.010095567700552498,
"10": -0.021932255073082642
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5,
"5": 0.5116279069767442,
"10": 0.4523809523809524
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.2885409455471601,
"eligibleDays": 375,
"fitnessScore": 0.15145420944651755,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.004454185151089324,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.043999999999999984,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.23466666666666666,
"activationCount": 88,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.456,
"5": 0.4339622641509434,
"10": 0.3770491803278688
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.9954545454545455,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.3055790269974895,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0019583088343182817,
"5": 0.007235809483915215,
"10": -0.013364716275467706
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.28166663197708164,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.0714938883199221,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0019583088343182817,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-01-24",
"2025-03-17",
"2025-03-18",
"2025-03-19",
"2025-03-20",
"2025-03-21",
"2025-03-24",
"2025-03-25",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 88,
"5": 86,
"10": 84
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002495876316771042,
"5": -0.012449054477471208,
"10": -0.02508353729638361
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.4782608695652174,
"5": 0.5072463768115942,
"10": 0.43478260869565216
},
"hitRate1D": 0.4782608695652174,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.16759501235695975,
"eligibleDays": 326,
"fitnessScore": -0.0026091047568320425,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.0024647129233168205,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.021205654841291,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.2116564417177914,
"activationCount": 69,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4570552147239264,
"5": 0.4472049689440994,
"10": 0.38485804416403785
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.025811105778697375,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.0001732264279441026,
"5": -0.00416214190927271,
"10": -0.024558575342797817
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.18439291416390036,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.028377442542286024,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0001732264279441026,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-04-28",
"2025-04-29",
"2025-04-30",
"2025-05-01",
"2025-05-02",
"2025-05-05",
"2025-05-06",
"2025-05-07",
"2025-05-08",
"2025-05-09"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 69,
"5": 69,
"10": 69
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002291486495372718,
"5": -0.011735245065369885,
"10": -0.02484172082538355
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5057471264367817,
"5": 0.45977011494252873,
"10": 0.42528735632183906
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5057471264367817,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.16587775071953165,
"eligibleDays": 326,
"fitnessScore": -0.005328357534922917,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.0024015565188264336,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.04869191171285525,
"portfolioSize": 4,
"activationRate": 0.2668711656441718,
"activationCount": 87,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4570552147239264,
"5": 0.4472049689440994,
"10": 0.38485804416403785
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.01793844350999772,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.00011007002345371577,
"5": -0.011398316702759127,
"10": -0.030736652862797132
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.3058489326557393,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.04450073279053535,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.00011007002345371577,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-04-25",
"2025-04-28",
"2025-04-29",
"2025-04-30",
"2025-05-01",
"2025-05-02",
"2025-05-05",
"2025-05-06",
"2025-05-07",
"2025-05-08"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 87,
"5": 87,
"10": 87
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002291486495372718,
"5": -0.011735245065369885,
"10": -0.02484172082538355
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5057471264367817,
"5": 0.45977011494252873,
"10": 0.42528735632183906
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5057471264367817,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.16587775071953165,
"eligibleDays": 326,
"fitnessScore": -0.005328357534922917,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.0024015565188264336,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.04869191171285525,
"portfolioSize": 5,
"activationRate": 0.2668711656441718,
"activationCount": 87,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4570552147239264,
"5": 0.4472049689440994,
"10": 0.38485804416403785
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": 0.01793844350999772,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": 0.00011007002345371577,
"5": -0.011398316702759127,
"10": -0.030736652862797132
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.3058489326557393,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.04450073279053535,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.00011007002345371577,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-04-25",
"2025-04-28",
"2025-04-29",
"2025-04-30",
"2025-05-01",
"2025-05-02",
"2025-05-05",
"2025-05-06",
"2025-05-07",
"2025-05-08"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 87,
"5": 87,
"10": 87
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002291486495372718,
"5": -0.011735245065369885,
"10": -0.02484172082538355
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5,
"5": 0.4642857142857143,
"10": 0.42857142857142855
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.11940676033289467,
"eligibleDays": 326,
"fitnessScore": -0.08957319950958448,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.0017563662810493744,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.042944785276073594,
"portfolioSize": 3,
"activationRate": 0.25766871165644173,
"activationCount": 84,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4570552147239264,
"5": 0.4472049689440994,
"10": 0.38485804416403785
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.13726655773489396,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0005351202143233435,
"5": -0.011957507813136817,
"10": -0.03216833049489303
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.3058489326557394,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.09369386555198111,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0005351202143233435,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-04-25",
"2025-04-28",
"2025-04-29",
"2025-04-30",
"2025-05-01",
"2025-05-02",
"2025-05-05",
"2025-05-06",
"2025-05-07",
"2025-05-08"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 84,
"5": 84,
"10": 84
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002291486495372718,
"5": -0.011735245065369885,
"10": -0.02484172082538355
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.5168539325842697,
"5": 0.42696629213483145,
"10": 0.4157303370786517
},
"hitRate1D": 0.5168539325842697,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.08904571962851703,
"eligibleDays": 368,
"fitnessScore": -0.16157540902104345,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.001567334054405289,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.05761480214948711,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.2418478260869565,
"activationCount": 89,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4592391304347826,
"5": 0.43956043956043955,
"10": 0.3816155988857939
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.16346338871027058,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0007878243213717582,
"5": -0.009629449169711363,
"10": -0.009595396396284664
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.35211929327793223,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.1527417039079133,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0007878243213717582,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-02-04",
"2025-03-24",
"2025-03-25",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27",
"2025-03-28",
"2025-03-31",
"2025-04-01",
"2025-04-02",
"2025-04-07"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 89,
"5": 89,
"10": 89
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002355158375777047,
"5": -0.01217915545257596,
"10": -0.024550556690553137
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.48314606741573035,
"5": 0.5056179775280899,
"10": 0.48314606741573035
},
"hitRate1D": 0.48314606741573035,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.06328671136568836,
"eligibleDays": 344,
"fitnessScore": -0.2428344115504612,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.00040466509489820064,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.020936765090148968,
"portfolioSize": 4,
"activationRate": 0.25872093023255816,
"activationCount": 89,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4622093023255814,
"5": 0.45294117647058824,
"10": 0.39104477611940297
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.27069964617846337,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0011861605659786545,
"5": -0.00021201527462853077,
"10": -0.013695151447234623
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.3853259990715836,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.16289103715663855,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0011861605659786545,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-04-16",
"2025-04-17",
"2025-04-21",
"2025-04-22",
"2025-04-23",
"2025-04-24",
"2025-04-25",
"2025-04-28",
"2025-04-29",
"2025-04-30"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 89,
"5": 89,
"10": 89
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0015908256608768551,
"5": -0.010095567700552498,
"10": -0.021932255073082642
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.48314606741573035,
"5": 0.5056179775280899,
"10": 0.48314606741573035
},
"hitRate1D": 0.48314606741573035,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.06328671136568836,
"eligibleDays": 344,
"fitnessScore": -0.2428344115504612,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.00040466509489820064,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.020936765090148968,
"portfolioSize": 5,
"activationRate": 0.25872093023255816,
"activationCount": 89,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4622093023255814,
"5": 0.45294117647058824,
"10": 0.39104477611940297
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.27069964617846337,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0011861605659786545,
"5": -0.00021201527462853077,
"10": -0.013695151447234623
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.3853259990715836,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.16289103715663855,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0011861605659786545,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-04-16",
"2025-04-17",
"2025-04-21",
"2025-04-22",
"2025-04-23",
"2025-04-24",
"2025-04-25",
"2025-04-28",
"2025-04-29",
"2025-04-30"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 89,
"5": 89,
"10": 89
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0015908256608768551,
"5": -0.010095567700552498,
"10": -0.021932255073082642
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.47115384615384615,
"5": 0.4803921568627451,
"10": 0.42
},
"hitRate1D": 0.47115384615384615,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.05783277041436763,
"eligibleDays": 375,
"fitnessScore": -0.26393798569786786,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.0014559508875205272,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.015153846153846129,
"portfolioSize": 3,
"activationRate": 0.2773333333333333,
"activationCount": 104,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.456,
"5": 0.4339622641509434,
"10": 0.3770491803278688
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.9961538461538462,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.232007569038599,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0010399254292505146,
"5": -0.0021819009551609287,
"10": -0.022618762497688953
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.34359036920630814,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.20583006702146645,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0010399254292505146,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-01-24",
"2025-03-17",
"2025-03-18",
"2025-03-19",
"2025-03-20",
"2025-03-21",
"2025-03-24",
"2025-03-25",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 104,
"5": 102,
"10": 100
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002495876316771042,
"5": -0.012449054477471208,
"10": -0.02508353729638361
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.46987951807228917,
"5": 0.5060240963855421,
"10": 0.4819277108433735
},
"hitRate1D": 0.46987951807228917,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.04181093376887378,
"eligibleDays": 344,
"fitnessScore": -0.339015191678402,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": -0.00037554430318470977,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.007670215746707787,
"portfolioSize": 3,
"activationRate": 0.24127906976744187,
"activationCount": 83,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4622093023255814,
"5": 0.45294117647058824,
"10": 0.39104477611940297
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.43314628105546554,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.001966369964061565,
"5": -0.002168750769126858,
"10": -0.01659291756243222
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.3853259990715836,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.20678917918547257,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.001966369964061565,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-04-16",
"2025-04-21",
"2025-04-23",
"2025-04-24",
"2025-04-25",
"2025-04-28",
"2025-04-29",
"2025-04-30",
"2025-05-01",
"2025-05-02"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 83,
"5": 83,
"10": 83
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0015908256608768551,
"5": -0.010095567700552498,
"10": -0.021932255073082642
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.49074074074074076,
"5": 0.48148148148148145,
"10": 0.4444444444444444
},
"hitRate1D": 0.49074074074074076,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.03861739348282366,
"eligibleDays": 359,
"fitnessScore": -0.3572273296282061,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.0002487185014943354,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.03391622820592183,
"portfolioSize": 4,
"activationRate": 0.3008356545961003,
"activationCount": 108,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4568245125348189,
"5": 0.447887323943662,
"10": 0.3914285714285714
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.47124523563660664,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0020990503354462895,
"5": -0.002324395558604136,
"10": -0.009682277786815692
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.3850594197174657,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.28308625235602847,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0020990503354462895,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-02-18",
"2025-03-25",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27",
"2025-03-28",
"2025-04-07",
"2025-04-08",
"2025-04-10",
"2025-04-11",
"2025-04-14"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 108,
"5": 108,
"10": 108
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002347768836940625,
"5": -0.011897361044528862,
"10": -0.02151494690057405
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.49074074074074076,
"5": 0.48148148148148145,
"10": 0.4444444444444444
},
"hitRate1D": 0.49074074074074076,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.03861739348282366,
"eligibleDays": 359,
"fitnessScore": -0.3572273296282061,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.0002487185014943354,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.03391622820592183,
"portfolioSize": 5,
"activationRate": 0.3008356545961003,
"activationCount": 108,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4568245125348189,
"5": 0.447887323943662,
"10": 0.3914285714285714
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.47124523563660664,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0020990503354462895,
"5": -0.002324395558604136,
"10": -0.009682277786815692
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.3850594197174657,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.28308625235602847,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0020990503354462895,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-02-18",
"2025-03-25",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27",
"2025-03-28",
"2025-04-07",
"2025-04-08",
"2025-04-10",
"2025-04-11",
"2025-04-14"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 108,
"5": 108,
"10": 108
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002347768836940625,
"5": -0.011897361044528862,
"10": -0.02151494690057405
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.4608695652173913,
"5": 0.48214285714285715,
"10": 0.43119266055045874
},
"hitRate1D": 0.4608695652173913,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.03056644644154367,
"eligibleDays": 375,
"fitnessScore": -0.4104979909337729,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.0007257539363549924,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.004869565217391292,
"portfolioSize": 4,
"activationRate": 0.30666666666666664,
"activationCount": 115,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.456,
"5": 0.4339622641509434,
"10": 0.3770491803278688
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.9947826086956523,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.39766297691146674,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0017701223804160494,
"5": -0.0007399515617608002,
"10": -0.01965731032825338
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.4477491590233007,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.2851218189807322,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0017701223804160494,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-01-24",
"2025-03-17",
"2025-03-18",
"2025-03-19",
"2025-03-20",
"2025-03-21",
"2025-03-24",
"2025-03-25",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 115,
"5": 112,
"10": 109
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002495876316771042,
"5": -0.012449054477471208,
"10": -0.02508353729638361
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.4608695652173913,
"5": 0.48214285714285715,
"10": 0.43119266055045874
},
"hitRate1D": 0.4608695652173913,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.03056644644154367,
"eligibleDays": 375,
"fitnessScore": -0.4104979909337729,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.0007257539363549924,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.004869565217391292,
"portfolioSize": 5,
"activationRate": 0.30666666666666664,
"activationCount": 115,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.456,
"5": 0.4339622641509434,
"10": 0.3770491803278688
},
"sampleConfidence": 0.9947826086956523,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.39766297691146674,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0017701223804160494,
"5": -0.0007399515617608002,
"10": -0.01965731032825338
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.4477491590233007,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.2851218189807322,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0017701223804160494,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-01-24",
"2025-03-17",
"2025-03-18",
"2025-03-19",
"2025-03-20",
"2025-03-21",
"2025-03-24",
"2025-03-25",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 115,
"5": 112,
"10": 109
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002495876316771042,
"5": -0.012449054477471208,
"10": -0.02508353729638361
}
},
{
"topN": 2,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.4810126582278481,
"5": 0.4810126582278481,
"10": 0.4430379746835443
},
"hitRate1D": 0.4810126582278481,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.020075955364340925,
"eligibleDays": 359,
"fitnessScore": -0.505349487240856,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": -0.0016430581246110148,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.024188145693029184,
"portfolioSize": 2,
"activationRate": 0.2200557103064067,
"activationCount": 79,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4568245125348189,
"5": 0.447887323943662,
"10": 0.3914285714285714
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.7228939184006227,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.00399082696155164,
"5": -0.002818332418363315,
"10": -0.00796487194353065
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.37974549431266436,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.3278682718478638,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.00399082696155164,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-02-18",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27",
"2025-03-28",
"2025-04-07",
"2025-04-08",
"2025-04-10",
"2025-04-11",
"2025-04-14",
"2025-04-15"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 79,
"5": 79,
"10": 79
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002347768836940625,
"5": -0.011897361044528862,
"10": -0.02151494690057405
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.47474747474747475,
"5": 0.47474747474747475,
"10": 0.4444444444444444
},
"hitRate1D": 0.47474747474747475,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.01966081112540389,
"eligibleDays": 359,
"fitnessScore": -0.5100396752992704,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": -0.000998513180980163,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.017922962212655824,
"portfolioSize": 3,
"activationRate": 0.2757660167130919,
"activationCount": 99,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4568245125348189,
"5": 0.447887323943662,
"10": 0.3914285714285714
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.6879741669116525,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.003346282017920788,
"5": -0.0048031269141008475,
"10": -0.012024935602817376
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.4135566106142755,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.3513488246762494,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.003346282017920788,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-02-18",
"2025-03-25",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27",
"2025-03-28",
"2025-04-07",
"2025-04-08",
"2025-04-10",
"2025-04-11",
"2025-04-14"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 99,
"5": 99,
"10": 99
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002347768836940625,
"5": -0.011897361044528862,
"10": -0.02151494690057405
}
},
{
"topN": 4,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.4716981132075472,
"5": 0.44339622641509435,
"10": 0.42452830188679247
},
"hitRate1D": 0.4716981132075472,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.00918621011228522,
"eligibleDays": 368,
"fitnessScore": -0.6797810944762591,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": -0.0020218069909906594,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.012458982772764582,
"portfolioSize": 4,
"activationRate": 0.28804347826086957,
"activationCount": 106,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4592391304347826,
"5": 0.43956043956043955,
"10": 0.3816155988857939
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.8760049085081838,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0043769653667677065,
"5": -0.007181382774525209,
"10": -0.009262231242227687
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.5293284189380201,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.44168454072978247,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0043769653667677065,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-02-04",
"2025-03-24",
"2025-03-25",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27",
"2025-03-28",
"2025-03-31",
"2025-04-01",
"2025-04-02",
"2025-04-03"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 106,
"5": 106,
"10": 106
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002355158375777047,
"5": -0.01217915545257596,
"10": -0.024550556690553137
}
},
{
"topN": 5,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.4716981132075472,
"5": 0.44339622641509435,
"10": 0.42452830188679247
},
"hitRate1D": 0.4716981132075472,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004,
0.10000000000000002
],
"comboQuality": 0.00918621011228522,
"eligibleDays": 368,
"fitnessScore": -0.6797810944762591,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": -0.0020218069909906594,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.012458982772764582,
"portfolioSize": 5,
"activationRate": 0.28804347826086957,
"activationCount": 106,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4592391304347826,
"5": 0.43956043956043955,
"10": 0.3816155988857939
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.8760049085081838,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.0043769653667677065,
"5": -0.007181382774525209,
"10": -0.009262231242227687
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.5293284189380201,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.44168454072978247,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0043769653667677065,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-02-04",
"2025-03-24",
"2025-03-25",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27",
"2025-03-28",
"2025-03-31",
"2025-04-01",
"2025-04-02",
"2025-04-03"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 106,
"5": 106,
"10": 106
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002355158375777047,
"5": -0.01217915545257596,
"10": -0.024550556690553137
}
},
{
"topN": 3,
"ticker": "MSTR",
"hitRates": {
"1": 0.47058823529411764,
"5": 0.43137254901960786,
"10": 0.4215686274509804
},
"hitRate1D": 0.47058823529411764,
"rankWeights": [
0.4000000000000001,
0.30000000000000004,
0.20000000000000004
],
"comboQuality": 0.009159029552296928,
"eligibleDays": 368,
"fitnessScore": -0.680439040099669,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": -0.0020008867341671814,
"hitRateLift1D": 0.011349104859335046,
"portfolioSize": 3,
"activationRate": 0.27717391304347827,
"activationCount": 102,
"baselineHitRates": {
"1": 0.4592391304347826,
"5": 0.43956043956043955,
"10": 0.3816155988857939
},
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"shadowSharpeLike": -0.8556979282268167,
"avgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.004356045109944228,
"5": -0.00931284799897764,
"10": -0.009227745880883579
},
"shadowMaxDrawdown": -0.5481307303333283,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.42927900748540393,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.004356045109944228,
"riskOffActivations": 0,
"activationDatesSample": [
"2025-02-04",
"2025-03-24",
"2025-03-25",
"2025-03-26",
"2025-03-27",
"2025-03-28",
"2025-03-31",
"2025-04-01",
"2025-04-02",
"2025-04-03"
],
"horizonObservationCounts": {
"1": 102,
"5": 102,
"10": 102
},
"baselineAvgForwardReturns": {
"1": -0.002355158375777047,
"5": -0.01217915545257596,
"10": -0.024550556690553137
}
}
],
"interpretation": {
"scoreMeaning": "The effective fit score after applying the conservative confidence penalty.",
"backendMeaning": "This Force evaluator uses the alpha1 backend logic that powers the current Force preview path.",
"fitScopeMeaning": "Force fit is currently universe-conditioned because the stock competes against the tested Force universe at each ranking step.",
"rawScoreMeaning": "The unadjusted Force-family fit estimate before the conservative confidence penalty.",
"algorithmFitMeaning": "Measures how consistently this stock works across the Force strategy family within this tested universe.",
"confidenceAdjustmentMeaning": "The current conservative_penalty adjustment retains the existing formula used by the shared family-fit core."
},
"lookbackSummary": [
{
"comboQuality": 0.2885409455471601,
"fitnessScore": 0.15145420944651755,
"lookbackDays": 14,
"returnLift1D": 0.004454185151089324,
"activationRate": 0.23466666666666666,
"activationCount": 88,
"sampleConfidence": 0.9954545454545455,
"bestPortfolioSize": 2,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.0714938883199221,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0019583088343182817
},
{
"comboQuality": 0.08904571962851703,
"fitnessScore": -0.16157540902104345,
"lookbackDays": 21,
"returnLift1D": 0.001567334054405289,
"activationRate": 0.2418478260869565,
"activationCount": 89,
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"bestPortfolioSize": 2,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.1527417039079133,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0007878243213717582
},
{
"comboQuality": 0.03861739348282366,
"fitnessScore": -0.3572273296282061,
"lookbackDays": 30,
"returnLift1D": 0.0002487185014943354,
"activationRate": 0.3008356545961003,
"activationCount": 108,
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"bestPortfolioSize": 4,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.28308625235602847,
"avgForwardReturn1D": -0.0020990503354462895
},
{
"comboQuality": 0.8085502468925623,
"fitnessScore": 0.6669358361502504,
"lookbackDays": 45,
"returnLift1D": 0.007580356750424011,
"activationRate": 0.18023255813953487,
"activationCount": 62,
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"bestPortfolioSize": 2,
"shadowTotalReturn": 0.3868529638644269,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.005989531089547156
},
{
"comboQuality": 0.16759501235695975,
"fitnessScore": -0.0026091047568320425,
"lookbackDays": 63,
"returnLift1D": 0.0024647129233168205,
"activationRate": 0.2116564417177914,
"activationCount": 69,
"sampleConfidence": 1,
"bestPortfolioSize": 2,
"shadowTotalReturn": -0.028377442542286024,
"avgForwardReturn1D": 0.0001732264279441026
}
],
"strategyOptions": {
"shadow": "Scores the stock like a standalone trade-only-when-active strategy.",
"blended": "Recommended. Mixes activation quality, activation frequency, return lift, and shadow performance.",
"coverage": "Rewards stocks that activate often without giving up too much quality.",
"precision": "Prioritizes hit rate and average return after activation."
},
"backendAlgorithm": "alpha1",
"universeIdentity": {
"hash": "999b567badf76544cc2d0cb56a9498577424ad54e1f831c9b48dc49f3407e040",
"size": 13,
"members": [
"MSTR",
"SMH",
"XLB",
"XLC",
"XLE",
"XLF",
"XLI",
"XLK",
"XLP",
"XLRE",
"XLU",
"XLV",
"XLY"
],
"version": 1
},
"scoreModeDescription": "Recommended. Mixes activation quality, activation frequency, return lift, and shadow performance."
}